By Irina Slav - Mar 07, 2023, 7:00 PM CST
- Rising Chinese demand will be the main driver of higher crude prices this year.
- A 500,000 bpd drop in Russian crude output could tip the balance in global oil markets.
- IEA: global oil demand will hit a record high in 2023.
Crude oil prices started this week with a loss. The reason for that initial weekly loss came down to overall global economic growth pessimism and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates, making the dollar more expensive and sapping demand for dollar-priced crude.
But by the end of Monday, oil prices had rebounded and were trading higher, extending the rally into morning Asian trade on Tuesday. The reason—comments from attendees at the CERAWeeek industry conference—suggested that supply will tighten before too long.
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Just another week in oil, some would say, and indeed, oil prices fluctuate constantly, to such an extent it is extremely difficult to predict them with any accuracy, especially over a shorter period of time. Yet it does bear pointing out that most forecasters seem to expect higher prices for oil later this year. There appears to be broad consensus on this.
Some, such as Forbes' Bill Sarubbi,notethe technical data of oil trading to suggest prices are going to go higher. In a recent story, Sarubbi said that historical data shows oil prices tend to rise between March and May most of the time, so it makes sense to expect them to rise this year as well.
